Continued from Sept. 21 post showing some of the Liar Denier tactics and myths: LIAR-DENIERS — DESPICABLE DEPLORABLE THREAT TO THE FUTURE. A typically popular post on what actually is the most important issue facing us and our children’s children.
I spent the last few weeks taking a free 6-week online course called DENIAL 101x on Edx. An amazing offering organized by Dr. John Cook of the Univ. of Queensland featuring presentations and lectures by 30 odd Climate Science experts in various disciplines. Video presentations average 5 to 7-min and the accompanying “handouts” are extremely valuable tools for anyone who wishes to be conversant with the science, informed of the facts, and devastatingly competent when confronting doubters or deniers. There is another Climate Change — The Science course coming online on Nov 1, 2016 and if it is half as effective and instructive as the Denial 101x course it will be well worth the 2 or 3 hours a week required to complete it. There are many online courses available at this EDX site. I only wish someone had informed me long ago of their availability. Do yourself and the planet a favor and check it out. PLEASE
Below I attempt to put into a post some of what I learned in DENIAL 101X.
LIAR DENIERS THINK YOU ARE TOO STUPID TO SEE WHAT THEY DO
We do not require the indisputable 90 to 100% Consensus of Climate Scientists that Anthropogenic Global Warming is a FACT. We can determine that truth for ourselves. We too can look at the data - the massive store of measurements of CO2 in our atmosphere and of rising temperatures across the globe. The ‘fingerprints’ of mankind are clear and convincing. The problem has not been with the facts — but with the distortion and obfuscation in the attacks on the science and the scientists by Public Relations experts with unlimited funding from the fossil fuel industry. As we well know that is what happens when well-funded communicators meet ill-prepared scientists who never wanted to ‘sell’ their findings on TV. Corporate owned media thinks a Climate Scientist vs a Heartland Institute PR shill “expert” is a balanced “debate” that indicates some debate and lack of consensus exists where it certainly does not.
This is where we need to develop our own expertise in order to show our family and friends how the science works and why the evidence is clear, convincing, and unassailable.
Charles Keeling put his CO2 measurement devices on Mauna Loa in Hawaii in 1958, We have had access to this record of CO2 in our atmosphere in the Keeling Curve and many other measurement sites that have duplicated this result across the planet.
This information is quite easy to understand. The number 401.10 is the current parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere at the Mauna Loa Observatory. Since 1958 the amount of CO2 has steadily increased from 315 to 401ppm. Everything you could possibly care to understand about this measurement is available here on THE KEELING CURVE WEBSITE including links to a number of additional measurement sites around the world that verify this is not an anomaly.
Even the LIAR DENIERS cannot attack these measurements. Instead, they try to claim the CO2 comes from volcanoes or other natural sources.
But this is what they fail to comprehend. We are smarter than they think. We understand there is a natural carbon cycle that has been operating on Earth for millennia . We understand that some CO2 is produced by natural processes like breathing. We know it enters the atmosphere and is absorbed by the ocean, released into the air again and absorbed in our forests where green leafy trees use photosynthesis to make CO2 into oxygen.
How do our Climate Scientists know about the natural balance of the carbon cycle in the past? We know because the ice is a massive storage facility for ancient data on the atmosphere.
We know the oceans and forests are carbon dioxide sinks that store CO2, first on the ocean surface until currents carry it into the ocean depths. This process was in balance for millennia. We know this because our scientists have learned that they can drill into the ice in glaciers on the high mountains and in Greenland or Antarctica and recover a record of CO2 that now goes back 800,000 years. This record now covers hundreds of core drilling sites and thousands of samples and clearly shows we have not approached 401ppm over all that time.
In order to better understand and communicate in conflicts with deniers and doubters on Climate Change, I entered the DENIAL 101X course on EDX. This course is nearing completion but you can get involved and gain the information on your own time as I have since last week. The course consists of short video ‘lectures’ of 6 minutes average, with pdf ‘handouts’. This is very well done and beautifully organized. I encourage each of you to at least visit the site and perhaps enroll for the Climate Science course that begins on Nov 1, 2016.
This video by Dr. Lonnie Thompson from Ohio State University is very entertaining and informative. Dr. Thompson invented a solar-powered drill light enough to transport and take core samples in the high mountains of the Andes, Alps, Himalayas and even Kilimanjaro and New Guinea. This involves drilling at 20,000 feet in areas inaccessible to even helicopters. Scientists use yaks to pack out the cores from the high elevations.
The way we know that CO2 is now out of balance with the natural carbon cycle comes from the measurements of CO2 at places like Mauna Loa and from analysis of the ice cores drilled by scientists like Dr. Thompson on high mountain glaciers and by many other Climate Scientists who have drilled deep in Greenland and Antarctica. Scientists depend on a wide array of cores from all across the planet to confirm that results are not isolated phenomena. The cores are shared with scientists in many different countries at many different institutions. The analysis of the trapped air in facilities in many countries ensures results cannot be 'doctored' or misrepresented.
You have to be absurdly lost in some vast conspiracy of an international cartel of science frauds attempting to frighten mankind with their findings. Simply listening to Climate Scientist speak on the news or in public should be enough to convince sensible people of their sincerity and lack of guile. They are not trained in communication skills and they often bury the impact while putting us to sleep. When up against a highly paid public relations expert from a fossil fuel industry funded “think tank” they come across as inept. Their tendency is to be detailed and very conservative with their pronouncements. If they think the data shows the world ending in 6 months they could put us to sleep with that news. They err on the side of minimizing the disaster potential in most cases.
What they do excel at doing is collecting overwhelming amounts of data to confirm their results at substantial personal risk for less than spectacular pay. Dr. Thompson like most full-time professors at State Universities in the Big 10 makes in the neighborhood of $150K a year. Research grants that afford us the opportunity to benefit from his research add something minimal to this amount but these grants are not gold mines or stock options, and the costs of these expeditions are necessarily high. The money made is nothing compared to the millions spent by Exxon and the Koch Brothers to keep the public confused about the science that proves we need them to cease and desist from drilling, mining coal, and fracking. Exxon and Koch Industries never pay the cost of using our atmosphere as their dumping ground and they are desperate to keep it that way as they fight to wring every last drop of carbon energy from the planet. If they succeed in burning all the carbon fuel we now know exists they will doom the planet to chaos from sea level rise, acidification, species extinction, and ever more severe drought and storms.
It took 4.5 billion years to store all that carbon energy in the Earth and the fossil fuel industry has succeeded in digging up and burning most of it in a single century. This fact alone should give us great concern. The idea this kind of wholesale resource depletion would not have some serious consequences seems laughable. The signs of impending disaster surround us and the coal mine canaries are dying in droves — still some people choose to believe the fossil fuel funded “experts” - mindless Senators from Exxon like James “the Hoax’ Inhofe and know-nothing blowhards like Donald “the Chinese Hoax” Trump. When all it takes are 41 US Senators to block action in our nation, all that Exxon and the Koch’s are required to do is to purchase the election of the Fossil 41.
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In order to detail the history of CO2 levels in our atmosphere, scientists get pictures of the past by drilling deep into polar and glacier ice to obtain “cores”. These long cylindrical pillars of ice hold the key to history. The cores collected by drilling are stratified by visible layers that show the ages of the layers much like the rings of old trees. Trapped in these layers are air bubbles that are a record of the atmosphere at the time the ice froze. That is what gives the scientists a record of CO2 levels going back millennia. We can then see the change in CO2 concentrations for all those centuries.
We know to a certainty that CO2 at the current concentration has not existed during the past 800,000 years from the record stored in the ice. We have the technology to see the isotopes in the molecules of CO2 so we can determine the sources of the CO2 that is tested.
Now you have the basics of how we know CO2 reached the highest level ever recorded in the past 800,000 years. Those measurements are obtained at a wide array of sites increase the certainty the results are accurate.
Scientists know the differences in sources of CO2 due to the mass of the isotopes and thus measure the CO2 from fossil fuels apart from other CO2 sources. So the Liar Denier claim that this increased CO2 is from volcanos or ‘natural’ sources is easily disproved.
There are three isotopes of carbon atoms - the chemical difference between them is that they have slightly different masses. The heaviest is carbon-14 (which, in the scientific world, is written as 14C), followed by carbon-13 (13C), and the lightest, most common carbon-12 (12C). Different carbon reservoirs “like” different isotopes, so the relative proportion of the three isotopes is different in each reservoir - each has its own, identifying,isotopic fingerprint. By examining the isotopic mixture in the atmosphere, and knowing the isotopic fingerprint of each reservoir, atmospheric scientists can determine how much carbon dioxide is coming and going from each reservoir, making isotopes an ideal tracer of sources and sinks of carbon dioxide.
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS
THE KEY TO OUR AWARENESS OF GLOBAL WARMING
Once we have determined the amount of CO2 and it's source, and we know that data shows almost identical atmospheric patterns all across the planet we have to understand the relationship of this increase in CO2 to the worldwide warming measured across the planet.
When we see this type of graph or information showing accelerating temperature increases in 2015 and now 2016 - where does the data originate?
First, we need to know that temperature measurements are made at some 6,000 land based stations across the globe. See them here divided into Red and Blue dots.
This division is made to ensure accuracy by allowing comparison of the data provided. The red and blue stations are in proximity so the data provided by each group should closely conform. Any faulty measurement instrument can be isolated and repaired when readings differ significantly from a nearby instrument.
Once the two separate graphs have been established they are overlayed to determine the accuracy of the measurement
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As you can see the minor differences in the two graphs does not alter the strength of the warming observed in either set of measurements.
When a Liar Denier attempts to discredit the data that confirms the warming reported by the climate scientists as inaccurate due to poor instrumentation or data manipulation, it is a relatively easy matter to refute these specious claims with the undeniable evidence.
These thousands of worldwide measurements are taken by different nations scientists. These measurements are all part of a public record that anyone can access and even manipulate. One of the tools used to study temperature measurements is available here:
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT TOOL LINK
With this tool, you can select any set of stations you wish. Select random subsets of fractions like 1/2 or 1/50 of stations or a single station from any of the available dots. Once you select the station, group of stations, random subset of stations, rural or urban stations etc. you click the Calculate button and get this:
On the bottom line, select a time period. This particular selection is of 1508 rural stations, and the trend line is from 1946 thru 2016. Anyone can use this tool and any of the measurements from any of the thousands of measurement stations.
Temperature measurements are not restricted to these land-based instruments. Satellites from NASA and other national space and science agencies record measurements of atmospheric temperature and add those measurements to the data stream.
The Liar Deniers claim these measurements are inaccurate since they do not account for urban heating. That claim is also patently false:
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As we can clearly see in this graph of temperature increase or Global Warming, many of the areas in red and dark red where temperatures have increased most dramatically are clearly rural. As areas have urbanized over the decades the Climate Scientist have adjusted the measurements to allow for urban heating caused by the elimination of green plants or water and the increase of asphalt and air conditioning heat
Climate Scientists are interested in the accuracy of their data. Those Liar Deniers who claim these scientists are somehow driven by an agenda to cook their data in order to keep receiving grant and research money are attributing to science what is obvious with their fossil fuel industry backers. It's Exxon and the Koch Brothers who have the agenda to keep their profits rolling in from fossil fuels. The scientists will continue to do these measurements and research without regard to any agenda outside of doing good science. Many have been offered more money to work for the fossil fuel industry instead of doing pure research.
We can now determine for ourselves that CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels is rising along with the temperature. But how do we know this is not from increased solar activity? Climate Scientist like detectives, look for “fingerprints”. Evidence that shows the origin of the observed warming.
Incoming solar radiation has a short wave ‘fingerprint’ compared to surface emission longwave ‘fingerprints’. The satellites used to measure these waves are built with instrumentation that differentiates between the two. Some incoming solar energy is reflected back into space and some of the heat generated by humans on the surface is radiated out into the atmosphere where some of that escapes. The question is how much of the outbound mankind generated heat is trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere. This can all be measured and the results are clear.
Liar-Deniers like to create doubt by claiming a “trace gas” like CO2 in such small amounts as 400ppm could not possibly have such a dramatic effect. Simply remind doubters that 800ppm alcohol will prove them drunk, 3 ppm Ibuprophen in the same bloodstream is the recommended dose, and 0.01 arsenic will kill them. CO2 adds up in these trace amounts and amplifies the effect of water vapor in the greenhouse effect. The good news is that water vapor only remains in the atmosphere for hours or days — the bad news is that CO2 from burning fossil fuels can remain for 50 to 100 years.
THE PROOF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT IS THE CULPRIT
Way back in 1865 Scientist John Tyndall predicted greenhouse gasses would have the effect of causing more warming in Winter and at night. This is common sense. Increased warming from the sun or sunspots would occur when the sun is brightest during the day and in Summer. But at night or in the winter when the sun has it's least impact, any warming that is measured must come from the greenhouse effect. Like being under a blanket at night in the winter the Earth remains warmer with a bigger blanket.
And that is exactly what Climate Scientist have measured and recorded:
There is no doubt that the vast majority of 90 to 100% of Climate Scientists agree on AGW. But that agreement doesn't have to be your only reason for knowing that CO2 is increasing from the burning of fossil fuels and that the temperature is rising across the planet. Anyone can access that data and see it for themselves.
So now that you know:
- 1) CO2 has risen from 315ppm in 1958 to 401ppm today
- 2) That CO2 has the isotopes that identify it with the burning of fossil fuels
- 3) Mankind is burning those fossil fuels
- 4) The temperature is rising dramatically
- 5) The fingerprints of that temperature rise track with the rise in greenhouse gasses
What do you conclude?
Liar Deniers would have you believe in some vast conspiracy among dedicated people doing scientific research at universities and in government research groups all across the world. These professors and their students are joined by over 200 recognized scientific organizations and this large number of government funded research groups. Any “hoax” or conspiracy would have to involve all these different nations and competing universities somehow doctoring the data at thousands of temperature and CO2 monitoring sites and controlling the flow of open source data from dozens of satellites. All of these records are available to the public. There is no possibility for a hidden agenda.
Use your own Occam’s Razor. What is more likely:
1) That this diverse multi-national group of Climate Scientists across the globe has conspired to manufacture a non-existent threat to the planet in order to keep a research grant that certainly does not make them wealthy.
OR
2) Greedy individuals with little or no scientific background, paid significant sums by the wealthiest and most powerful industry in history would do the job their fossil fuel masters pay them to do and manufacture lies in order to cast doubt on Climate Science and the Climate Scientist themselves?
CONCLUSION
By use of the tools and information in this post anyone can prove global warming is happening now and that mankind burning fossil fuels is the cause. You don’t need to prove the efficacy of the scientific consensus in order to show anyone:
- How the measurement are made
- Why the measurements are indisputably valid
- How we know the CO2 is from fossil fuels
- How we know the warming is coming from inside the atmosphere
- Why mankind is indisputably the cause of this warming
The ability to do this on your own will arm you with what you need to enter any discussion on global warming with full confidence in your cause.
In short form this is how we know beyond all reason or doubt that AGW -Anthropogenic *man-made Global Warming is an undeniable FACT. Although the climate is complex the Fact of AGW is simple.
- CO2 up from 315ppm (1958) to over 400ppm now -100’s of measuring station
- That CO2 is from burning fossil fuel —isotope spectrography
- Avg global temp 1.25 degrees warmer than 20th Century avg. thousands of measuring stations
- Warming is faster at night and in winter - Sun is not the cause
With these concise elements, you can defeat any doubter or denier in 95% of cases. It is up to us to change the consciousness of our doubter friends and neighbors. The only thing we cannot predict with complete accuracy is the rate of change — how quickly the most dramatic and damaging effects of this warming will occur. More Conservative estimates see a devastating 3 to 6-meter sea-level rise near the end of this century already “locked-in”. But the record shows an acceleration of changes beyond even the more dramatic models and there is an acceleration of temperature and greenhouse gas accumulation. The year 2100 models are now obsolete and 2050 or even 2030 is now a distinct possibility. Dr. James Hansen’s Mar. 2016 paper tells us that West Antarctic Ice sheets are near the point of precipitous change. The Ice “dams” holding West Antarctic glaciers on land are close to being breached and that could possibly allow a rapid flow of ice from land to the oceans far in advance of previous predictions. We are playing Russian Roulette with the planet while we load the gun with all this carbon. The victims of a loaded chamber in the cylinder will be your children and grandchildren. What are YOU going to do to stop this reckless behavior when you KNOW the alternatives to using that carbon are already available at a lower cost?